Can QE* Be an Effective Long Term Policy? Yes, and Here’s How (Part 2)

The research conducted by Joshua K. Hausman (University of Michigan) and Johannes F. Wieland (University of California, San Diego) examines the success Abenomics has had in boosting Japanese GDP and gives insight into how such unconventional monetary policy can sustain amplified GDP growth in the long term.

Named after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, ‘Abenomics’ is the name used to refer to Japan’s current three-pronged economic stimulus policy, which consists of a combination of monetary policy expansion, fiscal stimulus, and structural reform. It is the only real and current example of long-term unconventional monetary policy, and is thus viewed by economists as an important test of the policy’s validity.

So far, Abenomics has stood up to the challenge. The Japanese stock market has risen, the exchange rate has depreciated, and Japan’s GDP has jumped by up to 1.7%. Hausman and Weiland claim that one percent of this GDP growth has been directly caused by the monetary policy shift. Furthermore, Abenomics’ effect on the Japanese money supply has been much more effective than that of previous QE policies. The below graphic from the Economist article provides a nice summary of the effects of Abenomics:

unconventional MP_2

Hausman and Weiland attribute the superior effectiveness of Abenomics to the change in inflation expectations it has caused. Japan has set a new 2 percent inflation target and because Abenomics was announced to the public as a permanent change in policy rather than a temporary measure to boost GDP, inflation expectations increased for both the short and long terms. Both short and long-term borrowing appeared cheaper as a result. This, in turn, caused borrowing to increase across the board, stimulating increased consumer spending.

One should not go all-in on Abenomics quite yet, though. Both the article and research paper emphasize that Abenomics is still in its initial stages and has yet to prove itself as an effective catalyst for long term growth. When discussing the long-run outlook of Abenomics, Haussman and Weiland assert:

The research shows that the Bank of Japan is achieving its intermediate objective of higher expected inflation, but that the inflation target itself ‘remains imperfectly credible,’ with long-run inflation expectations below 1.5 percent.  Thus the modest estimates of Abenomics’ effects reflect in part that the Bank of Japan has not yet fully convinced the public that inflation will be two percent.

If the Bank of Japan could somehow more strongly convince the public of a future two percent inflation rate (perhaps through a public announcement reinforcing its intention to pursue the policies of Abenomics), the effects could be substantial. Hausman and Weiland estimate that “the output effects of Abenomics could as much double if inflation expectations rose to the 2 percent level.

In summary, based on the results presented by Gabriel Chodorow-Reich about the positive effects of QE on financial stability, and Hausman and Weiland’s estimates of past and future Japanese output growth as a result of Abenomics, I am convinced that unconventional monetary policy can be used effectively in the long term. If the Fed can convince the public that inflation will be steady at two percent and interest rates will remain low, whilst continuing to purchase assets and pursuing fiscal stimulus, it can achieve both strong economic growth and increased financial stability.

2 thoughts on “Can QE* Be an Effective Long Term Policy? Yes, and Here’s How (Part 2)

  1. enjar

    I think you should first define what unconventional policy is. I think in media, it consists of two terms, QE, simply buying long-term bonds and MBS, and forward guidance.
    According to the articles, it seems you are referring to QE part. I am not totally sure the Fed should continue buying long-term bonds. In the case of Japan, I think the difference of Abenomics with other stimulus policies there and here is that the money pouring into the economy in Japan is permanent unlike in the U.S. The Fed is assumed to sell back the long-term bonds once inflation starts rising. That means this QE money into the economics is temporary.

  2. dslavin Post author

    A couple of questions I have: 1) What do you mean the money pouring into the Japanese economy is permanent? Do you mean that investors don’t expect the Japanese central bank to sell back the long term bonds? 2) You say that the Fed is assumed to sell back the long term bonds once inflation starts rising, but what if inflation stays steady at 2 percent or below? What if the Fed can use its forward guidance strategies to convince investors that inflation and interest rates will continue to stay low?

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